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This One Graph Changed Everything I Thought I Knew About The Birth Rate Collapse
The Discord URL: https://discord.gg/27eJzt2n
In this eye-opening episode, Malcolm and Simone dive deep into the startling data behind America's plummeting fertility rates. Analyzing a graph synthesized from multiple studies, they uncover a little-known fact: the lion's share of the fertility decline is occurring among women under the age of 24. The couple explores the implications of this finding, discussing how the normalization of contraception, declining teen pregnancies, and a lack of understanding about peak fertility windows have contributed to the current crisis. They also touch on the cultural shift towards delayed marriage and childbearing, and how this has led many women to miss their biological window for conception. Malcolm and Simone then turn their attention to a thought-provoking article by Reagan Artin's Gray, which proposes a controversial solution: paying people $511,000 for each child after their second. While acknowledging the potential effectiveness of such a policy, they argue that it is politically unfeasible and could incentivize the wrong demographics to have children. The conversation then shifts to the importance of targeting productive, taxpaying individuals in any pronatalist policy. Malcolm and Simone discuss the pitfalls of simply increasing population without considering the economic and social impact of those additional citizens. They also touch on the role of immigration in bolstering a nation's productive workforce. Finally, the couple proposes an alternative solution: offering tax breaks and special societal status to families with three or more children. Drawing parallels to the treatment of veterans, they argue that individuals who make significant sacrifices for the state, such as raising large families, should be recognized and rewarded accordingly. Throughout the episode, Malcolm and Simone challenge conventional wisdom about fertility decline, explore the complex interplay of cultural, economic, and biological factors, and offer a nuanced perspective on one of the most pressing issues facing developed nations today. Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the surprising data on America's fertility collapse 02:14 - Breaking down the fertility graph by age group
Malcolm Collins: , [00:00:00] Simone, today we are going to have an episode that I think our audience is going to really like, because I saw a graph today that did more to explain falling fertility rates in the United States than any other graph I've seen.
Like, I think this is actually. The key graph and understanding functionally what's going on with demographic collapse, and it touches on a trend we had seen when we were talking about Latin American statistics, but I had never seen it so clearly argued was an American statistics.
Would you like to know more?
Malcolm Collins: Now, this graph was actually put together by a sub stack writer named.
Reagan Artin's gray you can find it at Reagan's sub stack is, is the name of the sub stack. And it's an article she put together. Can we afford to buy marginal babies? And I want to go over the arguments. Made in this piece because they're actually pretty interesting arguments and definitely worth engaging with.
But I, I [00:01:00] think that she comes up with a rational argument in the piece. Like it's a good argument, right? Or the best I've heard in terms of a policy solution. I just don't think it could ever get past with existing political climates. But what was really interesting and I don't need, because she didn't seem to realize in the piece that no one had put together this information before.
At least two that we've seen. Yeah, she put together like five different information sources. So this came from NHS birth rates. This came for Osterman, Michael J. K. at all births, final data from 2021, Hamilton beat. Well, anyway, just like
Published on 1 year, 9 months ago