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#123 Cullen Roche On Inflation, Why The Fed Won't Cut Rates Soon, And Is The S&P 500 Broken?
Description
Cullen Roche, CIO of Discipline Funds and author of Pragmatic Capitalism, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 123.
Going into 2023, Cullen’s big call was disinflation, which was a largely correct call. In this episode, Cullen shares his views that it might take a full year for the Federal Reserve to hit the 2% target. Because of that, the Fed can’t start signaling rate cuts without risking a resurgence in inflation. Therefore, Cullen believes the Fed will remain tighter well into 2024, increasing the risk of a hard landing or credit event as we get deeper into 2024.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/cullenroche
Discipline Funds: https://disciplinefunds.com/
Is The S&P 500 Broken? https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/11/21/is-the-sp-500-broken/
Pragmatic Capitalism: https://www.amazon.com/Pragmatic-Capitalism-Every-Investor-Finance-ebook/dp/B0B4V1KHVD
0:00 Welcome Cullen Roche to the show
1:03 Macro view
5:44 Real estate
10:13 How resilient is the economy really?
13:33 Disinflation call, 2024 outlook, road to 2% more difficult
17:29 Expect Fed to hold rates tight
18:23 Opportunities in bonds
20:28 Stock market is a 17-year instrument, duration of other asset classes
26:50 Allocating in this environment
30:00 Is the S&P 500 broken, are there hidden risks?
Marlinski Media produces the Julia La Roche Show: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/