Episode Details

Dr. Harald Malmgren and Nicholas Glinsman, co-founders and partners of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, join Julia La Roche on episode 106 for a deep discussion on macro, geopolitics, politics, and the implications for financial markets.

Links:

Malmgren-Glinsman Partners Daily Ahead of the Heard and Malmgren Institutional Research: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/

“China Will Be The Next Japan” paper: http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W23_Malmgren.pdf

0:00 Welcome Harald and Nicholas to the show 

1:00 Harald Malmgren’s macro view 

2:20 Huge debt situation worldwide, and growing U.S. budget deficit 

3:30 Strong dollar, lots of disruption 

4:55 U.S. Treasury Market is the ‘ultimate wrecking ball’ 

8:00 Malmgren-Glinsman’s call on China 

10:00 Problems for the Treasury Market 

11:19 Looking 3-months, 6-months, and a year out 

15:00 10-year Treasury likely going north of 5 

20:25 Implications of higher rates 

24:19 Negative economic outlook doesn’t mean rates will come down

26:43 Stagflation/ where to invest in a stagflationary environment 

37:20 Is it realistic to get back to a 2% inflation target? 

42:00 When are we going to trim this fiscal monster? 

43:30 The big risk today - the fiscal imbalance 

49:00 Biden 

53:58 Leadership 

56:00 Message for Millennials 

1:01:30 Hal Malmgren on political teamwork across parties 

1:04:22 Parting thoughts