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#087 Jason Trennert: If You're Playing The Odds Expect A Recession In The Next 6-12 Months
Description
Jason Trennert, co-founder and CEO of Strategas Research Partners, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging conversation on the macro picture.
Strategas has been voted the top independent macro research provider by Institutional Investor for six consecutive years. Trennert discusses the major macro themes that will shape the investment climate for the foreseeable future.
0:00 Intro
1:06 Quite cautious on the markets/economy
2:40 Chances are good that you’re going to get a recession
4:33 The magnificent seven
6:06 40% of the Russell 2000 has not had profits in the last 12 months
7:10 Inflation
9:00 Long way away from the Fed easing
10:25 Not buying stocks at reasonable prices right now
12:30 Opportunities, energy sector
15:30 Thoughts on AI
17:50 Themes
18:40 The end of globalization
22:11 Labor market
24:17 Hard or soft landing
26:00 Regional banks
27:48 Energy sector
32:50 Lobbying ETF (policy opportunities)
37:24 TINA
40:30 Fair value of S&P is probably between 3500-4100
42:00 Career in financial markets