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Everyone loves to say, "I told you so."

But few are willing to admit, "I told you something wrong."

Even though every human makes mistakes every day, it's surprisingly hard to find humans who regularly say, "I was wrong."

I make annual predictions not to say "I told you so," but rather to teach myself some humility.

I predict events so I can publicly humiliate myself.

It's my way of telling the world, "Look at how spectacularly wrong I was. I am an idiot."

I recommend everyone should write down annual predictions for this reason. 

It's a way to keep your ego in check. 

Of course, you'll probably get a few things right, but the point is that you get to say those magic words: "I was wrong."

See how I did on my 2020 predictions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJvDAOZGp8o 

I was recommending BTC at $3,500 in December 2018, and it's gone up tenfold since then!

My first two BTC predictions were surprisingly accurate. My 2020 prediction was far vaguer than the previous predictions. That reflected that I was less certain than before.

I feel the same way now. 

Like most analysts, I expect 2021 to be a huge year for bitcoin.

Most Bitcoin fans are expecting that 2021 will be a monumental year:

• Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, predicts bitcoin will hit $50,000 in 2021.


• The dubious stock-to-flow model predicts that BTC will be $55,000 by the end of 2021.


• A Morgan Creek co-founder says bitcoin will hit $100,000 in 2021. (That's my 2030 prediction!)


• Willy Woo (an analyst that I usually respect) says BTC will end 2021 between $200-300k.

You get the idea. 

On the one hand, such bullishness could make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. Bitcoin (like all money and gold) is all about human belief. Money is an imaginary thing. If we collectively decide it's worth $100,000 per BTC, then that's what it will be worth.

On the other hand, bitcoin has an uncanny ability to surprise most people. When pundits pronounce that bitcoin is dead (which they've done countless times), it comes roaring back.

Similarly, whenever bitcoin is soaring, people extrapolate the trajectory and get overly exuberant. The same thing happens with the stock market. During a bull market, they predict that the doublings will continue.

So far, bitcoin hasn't surprised me, but I'm sure I'll get it wrong at some point.

I'm predicting $40,000 because it's much less than the most bullish predictions, but it's still a positive year and a gain of nearly $10,000.

Remember: $40,000 is what I predict the price will be on December 31, 2021. I fully expect it to reach much higher than that during the year. For example, it might go to $60,000 and then lose half of its value (down to $30k) and then bounce back up to $40k.

The safest bitcoin prediction is that it will have a volatile year. So I wouldn't be surprised if, during 2021, it trades between $20,000 and $100,000!

I'm sticking with my prediction that bitcoin (BTC) will hit $100,000 by the end of this deca