Episode Details

Peter Boockvar (@pboockvar), Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group and author of macro newsletter The Boock Report, joins Julia on episode 51 for a wide-ranging conversation on macroeconomics.

In this episode, Boockvar makes a case that investors need to get accustomed to a slower rate of growth in this new interest rate environment where rates will stay higher for longer. As Boockvar puts it, it’s a “death by a thousand cuts” economy.

The conversation touched on the housing market, the Federal Reserve, earnings, layoffs, China’s reopening, inflation, and much more.

0:00 Intro

0:31 Macro view

1:12 Still in a bear market

2:31 Debt coming due

5:56 A death by a thousand cuts

8:06 A slower rate of growth

9:40 Housing market

10:35 To what extent do home prices fall?

13:58 Economic outlook

15:00 Higher rates relative to inflation is a more healthy environment

17:00 The Fed’s reputation has been shattered

18:03 Powell doesn’t want to repeat the 1970s

19:00 Fed wants market to ‘sober up’

20:44 2% inflation target is an arbitrary number

25:00 Earnings picture are a headwind for stocks

27:40 White Collar recession

30:24 China’s reopening

31:40 Chinese consumer has been unleashed

34:45 Why oil will go well north of $100 this year

36:30 Playing the China reopening

37:40 U.S. big tech’s best of their stock days are over

40:30 Every investor focused on macro has to keep an eye on BOJ

44:00 How to think about inflation

49:00 Be aware of your investing/economic surroundings

50:08 Boockvar’s marrying macro and micro

53:11 Time horizon is the key to successful investing