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Is "The Devil You Know" Really Better? Ambiguity / Uncertainty Aversion

Episode 243 Published 3 years, 1 month ago
Description

Today is all about the aversion that humans have to uncertainty and ambiguity, our fear of the unknown, and how it can cause us to choose something we are familiar with even though it may not be in our best interest. While this can often align with risk aversion, they are not the same thing, and while they do often correlate, they don't have to.

More on that, and of course, loss aversion and inequity aversion – all the aversions – on the show today, but because this is a concept I'm guessing you'll "get" pretty easily, there is less on the research studies (they are linked in the notes). That leaves the bulk of the episode to focus on how this applies to you in two aspects of business: internal communication and customer experience. Ready? Let's get started.

Show Notes:

  • [00:43] Today is about the aversion that humans have to uncertainty and ambiguity, our fear of the unknown, and how it can cause us to choose something we are familiar with even though it may not be in our best interest.
  • [02:38] The most important thing to know is that we don't like the unknown. We don't like uncertainty in our choices and will prefer known risks over unknown risks. And also, because our brains are lazy and rely on rules of thumb, we often will avoid making complex (and not so complex) calculations.
  • [03:39] Consider the stock market. This can have unknown risks and so people can feel hesitant to put their money there even when the probabilities and rates of return are relatively known over time.
  • [05:30] As with everything, when you present information, how you talk about it matters more than what you are saying. Frame the information you present to highlight what IS known to make it easier for someone to see the positive. (Note: don't gloss over important risks or problems. Use good judgment.)
  • [07:47] When you are presenting a change at work, there are so so so many variables at play, and if you leave a lot of uncertainty and ambiguity – say you share too early or in an incomplete way – there is a good chance people will rebel against that unknown future state.
  • [09:17] A real problem that happens a lot (and is unfathomably detrimental to change initiatives at work), is when someone is given ambiguous information and they feel the need to get their own brain relief by reducing their own mental burden (and wanting someone to help fill that void) in a way that they will find any possible way to justify telling someone (or in some cases, many someones) to cover up that uncertainty.
  • [11:26] As George Lowenstein proposed, "Curiosity is like an itch on the brain and we need anything we can find to scratch that itch." When there is information to be found, we can fill the gap with learning. When there isn't like in these scenarios, it can be gossip, fear, and doomsday-style planning for the worst, which will cause people to rebel against the potential future before it even has a chance to bloom.
  • [12:55] Everyone on your team needs to be trained on how to share the information and when, and make sure the message is properly framed with regard to all the ambiguous pieces that could cause people to revert to the known instead of the unknown.
  • [14:19] Melina shares some questions you can ask yourself to help determine when it is the right time to share information.
  • [15:38] Just forcing yourself to take a step back and a calming breath as you consider what is really happening can be so helpful. You may want to get out and take a walk or sleep on it or whatever else you do to gain perspective.
  • [18:35] Sharing too much information can cause overwhelm as well, which is stressful and creates its own avoidance, so it is about sharing the right information in the right way at the right time to the right people. Remember that "fair" isn't always equal, and different people need to hear different information at different times.
  • [19:50] Th
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