Podcast Episode Details

Flight #42: Why is the Fed Driving Us into a Recession and What is Deep Risk?

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Episode 42

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Q&A: Most common client questions lately:

• Headline of the day! (See slide...)

https://www.jpmorgan.com/wealth-management/wealth-partners/insights/the-case-for-always-staying-invested#infographic-text-version-uniqId1663780633203

This chart shows the annualized performance of a $10,000 investment made between January 2002 and January 2022. A fully invested investment returned 9.4% or $60,253. When the investor missed the 10 best days, the return is 5.21% or $27,604. When the investor missed the 20 best days, the return is 2.51% or $16,414. Finally, when the investor missed the 30 best days, the return is 0.32% or $10,651. An added fact is that seven of the 10 best days occurred within 15 days of the 10 worst days.

Topics we have been writing about, helping our clients with...

• Non-Airline Company Life Insurance and Portability...
• The limits of standard Disability Insurance and how to manage those limits
• How to stay disciplined in this battle...bad stock market
• What's the best path for young aspiring pilots? Cargo, Passenger, Fractional, Military?

Meat of the Mission:

1. Why is the Fed raising rates such that we could go into a recession
   1. Why is inflation so dangerous?
   2. What role does psychology play in our economy, inflation, etc.?
      1. i. 1970, 1980's...
   3. Why would we keep investing if we knew we were headed for a recession?
      1. Official dates of the Great Recession: December 2007 – June 2009
         1. S&P 500 Market returns
            1. January 1 – December 2009 – 26.5%
            2. 2010 – S&P 500....about 15%
2. What is Deep Risk versus Shallow Risk? We are afraid of the wrong things.

Book by ...Deep Risk: How History Informs Portfolio Design (Investing for Adults)

1. 1. Published on 3 years, 2 months ago