Podcast Episodes

Cracks In The US Labor Market - What Next?

Alf and Brent discuss the recent NFP print and its implications for markets. They also reflect on the right framework to apply to RSI and options when dealing with asset classes having skewed return …

Published on 1 day, 8 hours ago

The Truth Behind Fiscal Dominance

Alf and Brent discuss the latest attempt from Trump to gain more control over the Fed, and the implications this might have on multiple asset classes. They also discuss the JPY and the political situ…

Published on 1 week, 2 days ago

Run It Hot Hot Hot

Alf and Brent discuss the surprising Jackson Hole speech in which Powell opened up to interest rate cuts already in September. Markets are reacting strongly, but the real question is what should we e…

Published on 2 weeks, 1 day ago

Is The Fed Ready To Capitulate Dovish?

Alf and Brent discuss the weak labor market data and the likely Fed reaction function. The duo also reflects on how you might be right on the macro idea, but market pricing at inception of your trade…

Published on 4 weeks, 2 days ago

The Tariff Mismatch Theory

Alf and Brent discuss the sharp USD repricing and the market positioning for a mild tariff impact on the US economy - what if we get a surprising slowdown over the next few months instead?

Published on 1 month ago

Carry & Options In A Trump World

Alf and Brent discuss the recent clashes between the Trump administration and the Fed, the more friendly deal-making stance on tariff deals, and how to use options when trying to capture convex moves…

Published on 1 month, 1 week ago

Macro Crossroads: What's Next For Markets?

Alf and Brent discuss the crossroads ahead of us for the economy and markets: the USD selling seems to have lost steam, and tariffs' impact on the economy won't be easy to judge for months. So, what …

Published on 1 month, 2 weeks ago

Time For The Fed To Turn Dovish?

Alf and Brent discuss the recent soft CPI print and the state of the US labor market. They highlight the odds of a dovish Fed pivot, and what that might entail for markets.

Transcript: https://www.s…

Published on 2 months, 3 weeks ago

Another $5 Trillion of US Deficits in 10 Years: Now What?

Alf and Brent discuss recent market developments with a focus on the ''big beautiful bill'' that Republicans are trying to pass in the House and Senate. The initial estimate suggest new tax cuts woul…

Published on 3 months, 3 weeks ago

Recession Risks & Reflexivity

Alf and Brent discuss the reflexivity bias: now that the S&P500 is rallying again, investors are keen to talk about AI Capex driving indexes higher - where were they when we hit 4,800? Always be awar…

Published on 4 months ago